World's 7th Largest Economy Going Dry?

According to many estimates, the State of California, if it were a country, is close to becoming the world's 7th largest economy, passing Brazil this year, and the Russian Federation and Italy about a year ago.

Some key facts:

• California's GDP in 2013: $2.20 trillion, trend: expanding
• Brazil's GDP in 2013: $2.25 trillion, trend: steady or slight decline
• Investments in publicly traded California-based companies returned investors 119% in the three years ended 12/31/2014. The average company in the S&P 500 returned 96% in the same period.

But there's a big problem in the Golden State. California may be in serious danger of running out of water sometime in 2016 or not long thereafter. Much of the California economy depends on the famous names like Apple, Inc. and The Walt Disney Company, but much of it also depends on agriculture. Farming requires water. Did you know that it takes five gallons of water to produce one walnut?  It takes about one gallon to produce a single almond. You know, those "California Almonds."

The California dairy industry has been aggressively advertising California cheese in a battle of titans with my neighbors to the north, the folks across the Cheddar Curtain. (That's Wisconsin, if you didn't know.) Dairy cattle and other livestock require water, if you didn't know. And... for the record, the average Californian requires water every day, if you didn't know. A California gone dry would be a huge problem. Now you know.

Who says California is running out of water? Crackpot doomsdayers, conspiracy theorists, or other alarmist nut jobs? Hardly. A NASA study released in December, 2014 says California was 11 trillion gallons short as a result of the prolonged drought.

NASA satellite data reveal the severity of California’s drought on water resources across the state. This map shows the trend in water storage between September 2011 and September 2014. Image Credit: NASA JPL

In an Op-Ed piece for the LA Times on March 13, 2015, Jay Famiglietti, Hydrologist, UC Irvine Professor and JPL Senior Water Scientist, wrote:

"Right now the state has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs, and our strategic backup supply, groundwater, is rapidly disappearing. California has no contingency plan for a persistent drought like this one (let alone a 20-plus-year mega-drought), except, apparently, staying in emergency mode and praying for rain."

This drought is a natural event, perhaps exacerbated by global warming, perhaps a result of human activity. Can human activity fix it? Unlikely. There are no potential human activities known that could dramatically improve this situation in less than a few decades time, if at all. Maybe praying for rain isn't such a bad idea.

"For as the heavens are higher than the earth,
    so are my ways higher than your ways
    and my thoughts than your thoughts.
For as the rain and the snow come down from heaven
    and do not return there but water the earth,
    making it bring forth and sprout,
    giving seed to the sower and bread to the eater,
    so shall my word be that goes out from my mouth;
    it shall not return to me empty,
   but it shall accomplish that which I purpose,
    and shall succeed in the thing for which I sent it."

- Isaiah 55:9-11 

References
Brown’s California Overtakes Brazil With Companies Leading World. Bloomberg News, January 15, 2015
California Ranks As World’s 8th Largest Economy, Overtaking Russia And Italy KPBS, July 8, 2014
Needed: 11 Trillion Gallons to Replenish California Drought NASA, December 16, 2014
Op-Ed California has about one year of water stored. Will you ration now? LA Times,

Gratitude for The American Revolution and Other Unintended Consequences

A humorous and memorable series of television commercials for the Dish Network asserts that unless you terminate your subscription to cable TV and switch to a satellite dish you may lose all of your life savings in Las Vegas, your house may explode, or you may simply end up in a ditch. Each commercial is a memorable short story linking, by cause and effect, a series of improbable events that begin with the decision to have cable TV instead of the dish and end in calamity for the cable subscriber. At the end of each tongue-in-cheek story, the very serious narrator exhorts the viewer to avoid losing your life savings, having your house explode, or ending up in a ditch simply by switching from cable to a satellite dish. Although the conclusion proposed by these commercials is based on an absurd generalization, the improbable sequences of events are not unlike real life. These stories are funny in part because they contain an element of truth. Most of what we have and who we are is the result of our own uniquely improbable sequence of events.
I worked for many years for Hart Schaffner and Marx, later Hartmarx Corporation, now-defunct, later HMX LLC, now-defunct. Although Hart Schaffner Marx, an iconic American brand of fine men's suits lives on through a new company, the enterprise is a faint shadow of what it was a generation ago. This is a direct result of the arrival of "business casual" – a change in cultural norms in the American workplace. In the 1940s men wore suits, ties and formal hats to see a baseball game at Wrigley Field. Today, some men don't even wear shirts. Today, we still refer to many occupations as white-collar jobs because a generation or two ago, the men holding those jobs were expected to wear a suit, tie and white shirt to work every day. Because of this evolution, many good people lost their jobs at companies like Hart Schaffner Marx and other makers and sellers of business apparel. What happened? What caused all this? In January of 1961, John F. Kennedy was the first person to be sworn in as President of the United States while not wearing a hat. Soon, consultants at Arthur Andersen were no longer required to wear hats to work. Eventually, employees at IBM were no longer required to wear white shirts every day. People started reporting to work on Friday without a tie. The term 'business casual" was coined. People stopped wearing suits to work. Many employees at Hart Schaffner Marx lost their jobs. Don't lose your job making suits. Insist that the President-elect wears a hat.
In 1674, Englishman George Ravenscroft invented lead glass, also known as lead crystal. Great Britain's King George III enjoyed port wine. His wine was stored in lead crystal decanters. The longer the wind stayed in the decanter the more lead leeched into the wine. King George developed lead poisoning. He lost his mind. He began treating his American colonial subjects badly. They rebelled. King George lost a large chunk of his empire. Don't make your King lose a large chunk of his empire. Don't let him store his wine in lead glass.
We celebrate the birthday of the United States of America today, on July 4th. We are grateful to our nation's founders and to all who have given so much to create our nation and to preserve it. Should we also in some small way be grateful to George Ravenscroft who inadvertently poisoned his King? Or should we simply be grateful, for all that we have, for all that we love and for the whole tapestry of our lives, woven together from innumerable threads of unforeseen causes and effects?
Be grateful that you have nor ended up in a ditch.