Structure of U.S. Presidential Race Shows Little Change So Far

Structure of U.S. Presidential Race Shows Little Change So Far

According to the latest Gallup numbers, the President and Mr. Romney are running neck and neck for the second straight month.  Have voters already made up their minds?  What will cause one of the candidates to surge ahead?  Some major domestic or world event?  Spin and rhetoric?  So far, the only detectable trend is that the nonreligious and those with "no religion" (you'll have to ask Gallup about the difference) are moving into the incumbent's column.  This movement however is offset by small gains by Mr. Romney in a broad range of subgroups.  On the surface, this might suggest a weakening of the President's strategic position.  It would be a huge gamble to openly and specifically appeal to the nonreligious.  At the same time, any appeal designed to stem the apparent trend of slow erosion across a broad spectrum of voters is likely be general, vague, and personal.  Let's hope that personal appeals, from either side, will be strengths-based and not degenerate into "politics as usual."